![]() ![]() There are some uncertainties, especially on the posture of Mélenchon. First of all, the voting intentions will depend on the voting instructions given by the candidates eliminated in the first round. Nevertheless, current polls do not say everything about the second round. This is partly due to the fact that some voters, and in particular those on the harder left, are saying they would rather stay home than vote for Macron again, even if it makes Le Pen the president. But in any case, it's closer than the 2017 second round, where Macron won 66% of the vote against 34% for Le Pen. Other polls give him a lead of 6 points, others even more. In the polls, the gap between the two has narrowed sharply in recent weeks, reaching 3 points (51.5% for Macron, 48.5% Le Pen), which is within the margin of error. The most likely outcome is, therefore, a Macron-Le Pen run-off (an 89% chance, according to The Economist). As Macron has reminded his supporters, this is how Brexit happened. Macron voters might think that their candidate will be in the second round anyway and that there is no need to go and vote. Le Pen voters usually like to protest against the system but might also shun it on election day. ![]() A large abstention could be unfavourable to both Le Pen and Macron. Less than 70% of potential voters are certain to vote and abstention could beat the 2002 record. Let's not forget that there is a large number of undecided voters who can swing the vote. His chances of reaching that round are low but not completely zero. He is seeking to mobilise those who don't normally vote and more left-wingers by highlighting the "useful vote" and insisting that he is the only alternative to a second round similar to what we saw in 2017. In January-February, he was closer to 10%. In third place in the polls is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 15% of voting intentions he's also done well in recent weeks. She benefits from the fact that the French generally don’t tend to warm to their leaders, as illustrated by the fact that no sitting president has been re-elected for two decades. Her rise as the main challenger perhaps now makes her the default choice for the anti-Macron vote. She focused on purchasing power, leaving the others to get lost in broad and comprehensive promises. Instead of big rallies, she toured towns and villages, showing her ability to connect with ordinary people, which is fundamentally different from Macron. In addition, Marine Le Pen ran a good campaign. Zemmour's candidacy tended to “de-demonise” Le Pen, which helped her a lot because she appeared more moderate. A strengthening of the extreme right does not seem to be in place, but rather a shift from Zemmour to Le Pen. This rise is linked with the situation of Eric Zemmour, the polemicist and who also comes from a similar political position. In January and February, he was credited with 15% of voting intentions, but he has since fallen sharply and is now at 10%. ![]() The far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is in a strong second place, with 21 to 22% of voting intentions, and she has advanced strongly in the polls in recent weeks. He's also struggling with the cost of living debate. At a time when inflation is rising sharply, this theme has become the French people's top priority. His position as President has prevented him from really campaigning his first campaign meeting only came last Saturday. Macron is struggling to make his programme heard, apart from his willingness to implement pension reform, which does not please a large part of the electorate. This lead has melted away and he is back to where he was in the polls before the war. With the war in Ukraine, we had observed a "rally around the flag" effect and Macron had strongly increased his lead in the polls, reaching 30% at one stage. President Emmanuel Macron is still leading the polls for the first round of France's presidential election, with 26-27% of voting intentions. ![]()
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